Talkin' titles

The odds I would give on each team winning the ADT National Championship Trophy (seriously that is what it is called. Tradition!), in order of current AP ranking. I don't think anyone ranked below Penn State has a realistic chance at winning the national title.

Alabama: 5-1 They've got to beat Auburn, who has won six in a row in the series and, for all their problems, seems to be improving and has the best underdog big game coach in the business; Florida, the hottest team in the country with at least equal coaching and considerably better talent, and a national championship game opponent that will probably have better coaching and talent. It's doable, but difficult. Because it's so late in the season and because of their weak schedule, it would be very difficult for Alabama to lose a game, even Auburn, and jump back into the title game, but it's not impossible.

Texas Tech: 5-1 Baylor should pose no threat, but they've got to face Oklahoma and, should they win that game, a dangerous Missouri team, plus they have to win the national championship game.

Florida: 8-3 Ignoring Citadel, Florida State is not a particularly good football team, and despite Alabama's solid offensive and defensive lines, the Gators have the better team. Urban Meyer looked fine in his last national championship game appearance; this is a team used to winning.

Texas: 11-1 They need to beat Texas A&M, which they should do, and have Texas Tech lose to both Oklahoma (possible) and Baylor (unlikely). I suppose they could slip in if Oklahoma beats Texas Tech, who drops below Texas, and then loses to Missouri, but I think a conference champion USC might jump them in that case (but, being more likely than Texas Tech losing to Baylor, it might be their best shot at the national championship game).

Oklahoma: 6-1 Texas Tech is going to be a rough game, and Oklahoma State is a good team who has had Oklahoma's number in the past. Get past those two, and there's Missouri in the Big 12 title game. Get past those, and face a proven SEC team in the title game. Doable but difficult. It would technically be a three-way tie if Oklahoma wins out, Texas wins out, and Texas Tech beats Baylor, but that would almost certainly jump Oklahoma higher in the BCS standings. Oklahoma is effectively in a "win and you're in" situation.

USC: 15-1 They need Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Texas all to lose one more game and, just to be on the safe side, probably need Alabama to beat Florida and Oregon State to lose a game, giving them an undisputed Pac-10 title.

Penn State: 50-1 Besides winning their final game against Michigan State, Penn State need Oklahoma, Texas Tech, and Texas all to lose one more game (probably Texas Tech needs to lose a couple) and Alabama either to lose out or win out (either way works), plus USC to lose another game. And Utah losing a game wouldn't hurt, either.

Best case scenario:The winner of the SEC championship game losing their previous week's rivalry game, Oklahoma beating Texas Tech and then losing the Big 12 championship game, Michigan State upsetting Penn State and USC losing to UCLA. That gives us ... Big 12 South loser Texas vs. Utah? Boise State vs. SEC loser?

The most realistic but terrible-for-the-BCS possibility is a Big 12 championship game win by Missouri. That leaves the SEC champion facing one unappealing choice of one-loss and weak-scheduled USC and Penn State, or conference loser and one-loss Texas and Oklahoma/Texas Tech winner.