Tuesday, December 31, 2019

2019 3E BOWL PICK THEM SCORE BOARD: EXTREMELY SPECIAL "THE GUNS OF NAVARONE PART II" EDITION

Well that is interesting but today could swing it to "not interesting" very quickly.

If everything goes one person's way today, the Auburn game will-of course-be the potential clincher tomorrow.

Monday, December 30, 2019

2019 3E BOWL PICK THEM SCORE BOARD: SUPER SPECIAL "THE GUNS OF NAVARONE" EDITION

Friday went one way, then Saturday went the other. That's just how the cookie crumbles.

You can clinch the w/l portion NYE afternoon in the Sun Bowl. The confidence portion will have to wait until at least the Alamo Bowl that night. I'm just one or two results away from making sure that at least one portion goes to "The Big 20" aka 2020.

Today features one very pivotal Music City Bowl (CRISIS, 39 PP), a pretty significant 1st Responders Bowl (18 PP) and the very useless Redbox (1) and Orange (0) Bowls. I hope you enjoy them. Toodaloo!

Thursday, December 26, 2019

2019 3E BOWL PICK THEM SCORE BOARD: Very Special "I'm Here So I Might As Well Make A Score Board" Edition

Heap big excitement. Fun Fact: Regardless of what happens in the two games today, if every game goes your way on Friday, Saturday, and Monday, the Belk Bowl on New Year's Eve will clinch both parts of the pick them for you.

Monday, December 23, 2019

2019 3E BOWL PICK THEM SCOREBOARD: EXTREMELY SPECIAL "CIRCLE THE WAGONS" EDITION

4 games went "the way of Charles" and 3 went "the way of tha Captain" but the fewest POWER POINTS you acquired in your four wins was 11. The largest POWER POINTS value of my three wins was 10. You do the math! NOT. I just did it for you.

Wednesday, December 18, 2019

CRISIS Awareness Post: Know Your CRISES

POWER POINTS at stake are in POWERentheses.

12/21
Boca Raton: SMU v FAU (10)
Las Vegas: Washington v Boise St. (27)

12/24 (sorry santa, we're busy!)
Hawaii: BYU v Hawaii (26)

12/27
Military: North Carolina v Temple (17)
Texas: TAMU v Oklahoma St. (26)
Holiday: Iowa v USC (37)
Cheez-It: Air Force v Washington St. (10)

12/28 (sorry Ed, we're busy!)
Fiesta: The Ohio St. v Clemson (6, the least pivotal CRISIS game of all time)

12/30
Music City: Mississippi St. v Louisville (39)

12/31
Belk: Kentucky v Virginia Tech (41)
Sun: Arizona St. v Florida St. (17)
Alamo: Utah v Texas (39)

1/1
Outback: Auburn v Minnesota (42)
Rose: Oregon v Wisconsin (33)

1/3
Potato: Ohio v Nevada (50)



Here are all the games ranked by POWER POINTS (as above, the combined points wagered in CRISIS games or the difference in wagers in agreed games). POWER POINTS are the driving force behind the POWER FACTOR. He who hath the most POWER POINTS wins.

For all games, the winner that would benefit you is listed first. For CRISES that's pretty clear. For agreed games: if you have more points on the line, a shared win benefits you so our mutual pick is listed first. If I have more wagered, you benefit if we lose. For agreed games, our mutual pick is italicized.

1. Potato: Ohio v Nevada, 50 POWER POINTS
2. Outback: Auburn v Minnesota, 42
3. Belk: Kentucky v Virginia Tech, 41
4. Music City: Mississippi St. v Louisville, 39
4. Alamo: Utah v Texas, 39
6. Holiday: Iowa v USC, 37
7. Rose: Oregon v Wisconsin, 33
8. Las Vegas: Washington v Boise St., 27
8. Cotton: Memphis v Penn St., 27
10. Hawaii: BYU v Hawaii, 26
10. Texas: TAMU v Oklahoma St., 26
10. Armed Forces: Tulane v Southern Mist, 26
13. Gator: Indiana v Tennessee, 18
14. Military: North Carolina v Temple, 17
14. Sun: Arizona St. v Florida St., 17
16. Pinstripe: Wake Forest v Michigan St., 15
16. Birmingham: Cincinnati v Boston College, 15
18. Bahamas: Buffalo v UNC-Charlotte, 14
18. 1st Responder: WMU v WKU, 14
20. Camellia: Arkansas St. v FIU, 13
21. Independence: Miami (FL) v La Tech, 12
21. Camping World: Iowa St. v Notre Dame, 12
23. Cure: Liberty v Georgia Southern, 11
24. Boca Raton: SMU v FAU, 10
24. Cheez-It: Air Force v Washington St., 10
26. Arizona: Georgia St. v Wyoming, 8
27. Gasparilla: UCF v Marshall, 7
27. Citrus: Michigan v Alabama, 7
27. Sugar: Baylor v Georgia, 7
37. Mobile: Miami (OH) v UL-Lafayette, 7
31. Fiesta: Ohio St. v Clemson, 6
32. Liberty: Navy v Kansas St., 5
33. Peach: Oklahoma v LSU, 4
34. Frisco: Utah St. v Kent St., 1
34. New Orleans: UAB v Appalachian St., 1
34. Quick Lane: Pitt v EMU, 1
34. Redbox: Cal v Illinois, 1
38. New Mexico: San Diego St. v Central Michigan, 0
38. Orange: Florida v Virginia, 0




Tha Captainz Picks 2019: They're Just Right Here For All To See!!!!!

There are 39 bowl games in honor of the 39 white men who signed the U.S. Constitution.

BAHAMAS
(5) Buffalo v UNC-Charlotte
Turner Gill finally got the Bulls turned around.

FRISCO
(28) Utah St. v Kent St.
How often is it the case that all of Auburn's 1A non-con opponents make bowl games? It didn't happen the previous two years and that's as far back as the ncaa's records go.

NEW MEXICO
(17) San Diego St. v Central Michigan
A duel of relatively uncontroversial native american mascots. boring.

CURE
(29) Georgia Southern v Liberty
Ah good another chance for me to mention "Li-Bear-ty" the Beanie Baby.

BOCA RATON
(8) FAU v SMU
idk

CAMELLIA
(10) Arkansas St. v FIU
Ah yes it's "those teams are definitely in the same conference in my brain" time of year

LAS VEGAS
(16) Boise St. v Washington
Spin the wheel, roll the dice... and let the chips fall where they may.

NEW ORLEANS
(39) Appalachian St. v UAB
That guy with the wooden App St. sign. Do you think he made it or do you think he found it in the toilet?

GASPARILLA
(32) UCF v Marshall
It should be easy to think of something to say about a football game but it sometimes it isn't.

HAWAII
(4) Hawaii v BYU
Look out! It's the Hawaii Bowl!

INDEPENDENCE
(22) Miami (Fl) v La Tech
Remember when the ACC expanded and everybody (me) thought that the ACCCGpbDr.P would be Florida St. vs Miami every year and then that hasn't even happened once? Both teams have played in the Independence Bowl more times than they've played each other for the ACC title.

QUICK LANE
(31) Pitt v EMU
There was a comic book guy named "Pitt." From wikipedia: "Pitt is a human/alien hybrid, created by an alien race known as the Creed, genetically engineered to serve as a killing machine. He appears more alien than human, with red pupil-less eyes, gray skin, absence of a nose, sharp oversized teeth and large talons." There's no punchline here, I'm not going to say something like "oh i'm sorry that was the wikipedia article on MY MOTHER IN LAW" or something like that. I'm also not going to say anything about how EMU is the word Emu. Let's just move on.

MILITARY
(12) Temple v North Carolina
Temple is so named because it was started in the basement of a Baptist temple. That's so stupid. The first classes were tutoring sessions for working-class citizens and were taught late at night. This is why their mascot is the Owl. That's less stupid i guess but it's not cool. gtfoh temple.

PINSTRIPE
(27) Michigan St. v Wake Forest
"Wow, Michigan St vs Wake Forest," he said, failing miserably to feign any interest.

TEXAS
(11) Oklahoma St. v TAMU
Let's circle this back to the 39 white dudes who signed the Constitution. 5 Williams, 4 Johns, 3 each of George and James. It's weird that a guy named Jared was there.

HOLIDAY
(23) USC v Iowa
Thinking of how in 2002 Iowa had "Brad Banks" yet in 2008 the whole country had "bad banks."

CHEEZ-IT
(1) Washington St. v Air Force
Washington St. throws the ball so much it is they who should be called Air Force. Copyright Tha Captain.

COTTON
(35) Penn St. v Memphis
A guy named Jared signed the Constitution. Still weird.

CAMPING WORLD
(33) Notre Dame v Iowa St.
Man, f*ck camping.

PEACH
(30) LSU v Oklahoma
I am not really 30 confident but the line is so large I had to inflate the number a little bit.

FIESTA
(3) Clemson v Ohio St.
Has anybody said that the cfb playoffs are like taco bell menu items where it's the same 6 or 7 ingredients combined 4 at a time in different formats and also most of the ingredients came from the toilet

1ST RESPONDER
(18) WKU v WMU
wtf

REDBOX
(19) Cal v Illinois
Illinois ruined their uniforms and I will never forgive them.

MUSIC CITY
(15) Louisville v Mississippi St.
Petrinoball.

ORANGE
(36) Florida v Virginia
"Hello, it's me Jared and I'm here to sign the Constitution." Messed up.

BELK
(25) Va Tech v Kentucky
Gotta think that Budsworth "Bud" Foster can figure out how to stop a team literally without a quarterback in literally his last game as a coach.

SUN
(7) Florida St. v Arizona St.
They should also have a moon bowl and play it at night.

LIBERTY
(6) Kansas St. v Navy
Thinking of course of dear "Li-bear-ty" the very famous Beanie Baby.

ARIZONA
(21) Wyoming v Georgia St.
It's the kind of game that makes you think "foot ball."

ALAMO
(14) Texas v Utah
I don't have to explain this to you or to anybody else. I will not be held responsible for it.

CITRUS
(38) Alabama v Michigan
Making a "rage face" thinking about this game.

OUTBACK
(9) Minnesota v Auburn
Cheering for whichever team is "Team Bloomin' Onion" because putting coconut on it is a petty and insensitive thing to do to a shrimp.

ROSE
(26) Wisconsin v Oregon
What a clash of styles. Wisconsin wears red whereas Oregon wears green.

SUGAR
(34) Georgia v Baylor
See above.

BIRMINGHAM
(20) Cincinnati v Boston College
Don't forget to check out the McWane Center, boys!

GATOR
(24) Tennessee v Indiana
Always Bet On Orange

POTATO
(13) Nevada v Ohio
Imagine how different our lives would be if we had sat on the Ohio side instead of the App. St. side. Imagine how different their little wooden sign would be.

ARMED FORCES
(2) Tulane v Southern Mist
What does the Venn Diagram of "Armed Forces" and "Military" look like?

MOBILE
(37) UL-Lafayette v Miami (OH)
I regret to inform you that we have to wait until January 6th to see UL-Lafayette play Miami of Ohio in Mobile, Alabama.

Good bowl picks to all, and to all a good bowl picks

Gasparilla: UCF vs Marshall
My pick: I GOT IT ALL ON UCF 39
Partly this is Trusting the Bookies, but the play on the UHF lyrics is important here.


New Orleans: Appalachian St. vs UAB
My pick: APP STATE 38
Though we love them, UAB is not a good football team, and the bookies say this one’s a sure thing. 


Potato: Ohio vs Nevada
My pick: OHIO 37
It seems like Nevada is very bad! 


Orange: Florida vs Virginia
My pick: FLO RIDA 36
Virginia sucks! 


Birmingham: Boston College vs Cincinnati
My pick: CINCY 35
BC sucks! 


Independence: La Tech vs Miami (FL)
My pick: MIAMI 34
La Tech has not played anybody.


Outback: Minnesota vs Auburn
My pick: AUBURN 33
I became certain about this one when Derrick Brown said he was going to play. He’s a big name guy, and if he’s here for it, everyone will be. 


Quick Lane: Pitt vs Eastern Michigan
My pick: PITTTTTTT 32
Hard not to get excited about these two alma maters of Pitt legend Dan Mariner. 


Citrus: Michigan vs Alabama
My pick: alabama 31
Come on, man.


Mobile: UL-Lafayette vs Miami (OH)
My pick: ULLAF 30
UL-Lafayette is a big favorite in this one, but dang if I can figure out why. Apparently ULL is good? I assumed this was the Dollar General Bowl and tried to look up betting information under that name. It isn’t! 


Frisco: Utah St. vs Kent St.
My pick: UTAH STATE 29
Kent State sucks! 


Armed Forces: Southern Miss vs Tulane
My pick: TWO LANE 28
Hard not to get excited about this match-up of former (wait, is that right? they’re not in the same conference? oh, that’s right, they all moved around when those teams went up. huh) conference foes.


Sugar: Georgia vs Baylor
My pick: THUGA 27
Surely Georgia will not be overlooking an underdog from Texas after a disappointing SEC title loss, given, you know, the cool things that happened last year.


Peach: Oklahoma vs LSU
My pick: LSU 26
Oklahoma is pretty good, but LSU is better. 


Alamo: Utah vs Texas
My pick: UTAH 25
Tough pick! On paper, Utah is a lot better, but then Texas is very talented with a big-game coach, but then both teams had very disappointing seasons and can’t be excited to be here. So, I don’t know. When everything is in doubt, Utah is a lot better. I don’t think Herman is a great game-to-game coach, though he is still relatively young I guess as head coaches go.


Music City: Mississippi St. vs Louisville
My pick: MISSISSISSISSISSIPPI STATE 24
Mississippi State’s not, you know, great, but I don’t think Louisville ended the season well. 


Camellia: Florida International vs Arkansas St.
My pick: ARKANSAS STATE 23
This is where this game ended up in my list.


Hawaii: Hawaii vs BYU
My pick: BYU 22
Hard not to get excited about this match-up of states that shouldn’t be in the USA. 


Camping World: Notre Dame vs Iowa St.
My pick: NOTRE DAME 21
Notre Dame seems pretty good.


Redbox: California vs Illinois
My pick: CAL 20
Two bad teams. 


Bahamas: Buffalo vs UNC-Charlotte
My pick: BUFFALO 19
I am already forgetting why I picked this, and I looked it up! Probably something about statistics. 


Cure: Liberty vs Georgia Southern
My pick: GEORGIA SOUTHERN 18
How much of this line is Liberty being Liberty? 


New Mexico: Central Michigan vs San Diego St.
My pick: SAN DIEGO STATE 17
Central Michigan has looked extremely mediocre against decent defenses. 


Belk: Virginia Tech vs Kentucky
My pick: KENTUCKY 16
I’m kind of surprised this didn’t up higher.


Texas: Oklahoma St. vs TAMU
My pick: TAMU 15
Hard not to get excited about this game between mediocre teams I’d probably dislike more if there weren’t dislikable programs constantly around them. 


Holiday: USC vs Iowa
My pick: IOWA 14
They’re gonna fire that guy at USC, and they haven’t yet because it would cost too much. 


Arizona: Wyoming vs Georgia St.
My pick: WYOMING 13
Georgia: Arizona vs Wyoming St. Wyoming: Georgia vs Arizona St. 


Pinstripe: Michigan St. vs Wake Forest
My pick: MICHIGAN STATE 12
I don’t like either of these teams! 


Las Vegas: Boise St. vs Washington
My pick: WASHINGTON 11
This seems like a weird game to pick, with the outgoing coach and all. I think Washington will want to send their beloved coach off with a win, and he will be taking the game seriously. 


Sun: Florida St. vs Arizona St.
My pick: ARIZONA STATE 10
Hard not to get excited about this gridiron contest between two teams.


Cheez-It: Air Force vs Washington St.
My pick: AIR FORCE 9
This should be a fun one. The Cheez-It Bowl! How humiliating for America’s armed forces. 


Cotton: Memphis vs Penn St.
My pick: PENN STATE 8
Penn State is better, but not that much better. Memphis will be all hopped up for their new coach; will Penn State be excited? 


Rose: Oregon vs Wisconsin
My pick: OREGON 7
How much of this pick is that I don’t like Wisconsin, even though I think they’re the better team? A lot! 


Gator: Indiana vs Tennessee
My pick: TENNESSEE 6 
Remember that guy stepping on the Vanderbilt punter’s face? Cool. 


Military: North Carolina vs Temple
My pick: NORTH CAROLINA 5 
Seems like UNC is getting a lot of credit for not beating Clemson. 


First Responder: Western Kentucky vs Western Michigan
My pick: WESTERN KENTUCKY 4
Western! 


Fiesta: Clemson vs Ohio St.
My pick: OHIO STATE 3
This looks like a good game! 


Boca Raton: SMU vs Florida Atlantic
My pick: SMU 2
Coaches leaving etc makes me uncertain about this one. 


Liberty: Navy vs Kansas St.
My pick: KANSAS STATE 1
???

Monday, December 09, 2019

3E BOWL PICK THEM HISTORY: PAY ATTENTION YOU MIGHT LEARN SOMETHING

CHECK IT OUT



CONFIDENCE THING

2016: You - 508/820, 62.0%
          Me - 569/820, 69.4%

2017: You - 482/780, 61.8%
          Me - 481/780, 61.7%

2018: You - 416/749, 55.5%
          Me - 434/756, 57.4%

Let's Hear It For The 'Board

3E BOWL PICK THEM 2019: SORRY, TOLEDO

Read 'em and weep. Let's get 'em in by December 18th at the stroke of 5 pm. Ain't nuthin' wrong with that.

Friday, December 20th
  • Bahamas: Buffalo vs UNC-Charlotte
  • Frisco: Utah St. vs Kent St.
Saturday, December 21st
  • New Mexico: Central Michigan vs San Diego St.
  • Cure: Liberty vs Georgia Southern
  • Boca Raton: SMU vs Florida Atlantic
  • Camellia: Florida International vs Arkansas St.
  • Las Vegas: Boise St. vs Washington
  • New Orleans: Appalachian St. vs UAB
Monday, December 23rd
  • Gasparilla: UCF vs Marshall
Tuesday, December 24th
  • Hawaii: Hawaii vs BYU
Thursday, December 26th
  • Independence: La Tech vs Miami (FL)
  • Quick Lane: Pitt vs Eastern Michigan
Friday, December 27th
  • Military: North Carolina vs Temple
  • Pinstripe: Michigan St. vs Wake Forest
  • Texas: Oklahoma St. vs TAMU
  • Holiday: USC vs Iowa
  • Cheez-It: Air Force vs Washington St.
Saturday, December 28th
  • Camping World: Notre Dame vs Iowa St.
  • Cotton: Memphis vs Penn St.
  • Peach: Oklahoma vs LSU
  • Fiesta: Clemson vs Ohio St.
Monday, December 30th
  • First Responder: Western Kentucky vs Western Michigan
  • Redbox: California vs Illinois
  • Music City: Mississippi St. vs Louisville
  • Orange: Florida vs Virginia
Tuesday, December 31st
  • Belk: Virginia Tech vs Kentucky
  • Sun: Florida St. vs Arizona St.
  • Liberty: Navy vs Kansas St.
  • Arizona: Wyoming vs Georgia St.
  • Alamo: Utah vs Texas
Wednesday, January 1st
  • Citrus: Michigan vs Alabama
  • Outback: Minnesota vs Auburn
  • Rose: Oregon vs Wisconsin
  • Sugar: Georgia vs Baylor
Thursday, January 2nd
  • Birmingham: Boston College vs Cincinnati
  • Gator: Indiana vs Tennessee
Friday, January 3rd
  • Potato: Ohio vs Nevada
Saturday, January 4th
  • Armed Forces: Southern Miss vs Tulane
Monday, January 6th
  • Mobile: UL-Lafayette vs Miami (OH)

Sunday, December 08, 2019

here's me

Thursday, December 05, 2019

extremely good tiebreaking picks

LSU -7.5: You know what I think.

Regular Tie Breaker:
First team to punt from the opponent's territory: UGA
First team to call a fair catch on a punt or kickoff: LSU
First team to concede a first down by penalty: LSU
First team to have a non-zero, even number of points at the time of a kickoff or free kick (so having 6 points after a td but before a made xp would not count): LSU
Number of combined punts in the first quarter: 1
Number of combined turnovers in the first half: 1
Combined points scored on kicks (fgs, xps) in the first 20 minutes of game time: 6

The Ultra-Tiebreaker: UGA 13 LSU 21

I think we are going to disagree on the pick so the Byzantine contingency bets won't matter

What a ride!

Georgia +7.5



  1. First team to punt from the opponent's territory: UGA
  2. First team to call a fair catch on a punt or kickoff: YOU WOULD THINK THAT THIS WOULD BE CLOSELY TIED TO #1 BUT I AM A WILD MAN UGA
  3. First team to concede a first down by penalty: LSU
  4. First team to have a non-zero, even number of points at the time of a kickoff or free kick (so having 6 points after a td but before a made xp would not count): LSU
  5. Number of combined punts in the first quarter: 2
  6. Number of combined turnovers in the first half: 1
  7. Combined points scored on kicks (fgs, xps) in the first 20 minutes of game time: 6
ULTRATIEBREAKER: LSU 16 UGA 11

Tuesday, December 03, 2019

breakin the tie / breakin the tie (like breakin the law)

As my infant son would say: "wow"

Shaun Shivers: 5-4 (50-44-3)
The Alabama Guy's Helmet: 6-3 (50-44-3)

As I posited, if we disagree on the pick ATS, then that's it. That's the whole enchilada.

Georgia vs LSU -7.5

However, in the event of disagreement, the 2019 SEC Pick Off shall be won by he whom picks the most of the following in a manner of correctness:
  1. First team to punt from the opponent's territory
  2. First team to call a fair catch on a punt or kickoff
  3. First team to concede a first down by penalty
  4. First team to have a non-zero, even number of points at the time of a kickoff or free kick (so having 6 points after a td but before a made xp would not count)
  5. Number of combined punts in the first quarter
  6. Number of combined turnovers in the first half
  7. Combined points scored on kicks (fgs, xps) in the first 20 minutes of game time
The Ultra-Tiebreaker will be as follows:
  • Predicted score at halftime. Winner will be the lowest average of the following:
    • Difference between LSU predicted points and LSU actual points
    • Difference between UGA predicted points and UGA actual points
    • Difference between predicted margin and actual margin
For example, if I predict that the score will be LSU 69 UGA 69 at halftime and the actual score is LSU 21 UGA 14:
    • Difference between LSU predicted points and LSU actual points: 69-21=48
    • Difference between UGA predicted points and UGA actual points: 69-14=55
    • Difference between predicted margin and actual margin: 7-0=7
    • Average: 48+55+7=36.67
I hope this is stupid enough for everyone.



$$$ The Nice Bookie Has Crowned His Prince $$$

The Wise Pauper: $1,698.00
The Moneyed Fool: $1,768.53

We should really gamble, obviously.